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Interesting. Keep in mind that at least some, if not most, of the increase in 2020 and especially 2021 was most likely a result of the lockdowns and antisocial distancing during the pandemic. But yes, Virginia, it looks like there really is a "there", there after all, even before 2020.

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Thanks, this reminded me to add a note on the need to interpret 2020 NSDUH data with caution due to administrative changes induced by the pandemic. I also added some info on standard errors and confidence intervals.

That said, the rate had gradually doubled already by 2019, so indeed the primary conclusion holds no matter how the pandemic further affected depression.

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